Take the Browns +11 against the Ravens on Monday Night Football. The Browns have had 2 weeks to prepare for this game at home. Division games are always tough. The Ravens are not a powerhouse team anymore. It really wouldn’t be all that surprising if the Browns win this game. I love to bet on bad teams coming off their bye. The betting public doesn’t consider the bye week to be a factor, so they overlook it. The public is all over the Baltimore for tonight’s game. Their has to be a little extra value in the 11 points because the books have to protect themselves. The books can put out a bad line if they know what the public will bet. By doing this they give themselves a little extra edge to help compensate for the large amount of action. There is always a lot of action on primetime games.
Another interesting thing about tonight’s game is that the over/under is only 39. Vegas is telling us there shouldn’t be a lot of scoring in this game. The 11 points the Browns are getting is 28% of the total expected score! If the Browns get in the end zone one time, it may be enough to cover. Even 3 field goals could cover this spread. On the other hand, the Ravens will have to get into the end zone at least 3 or 4 times. With the 2 weeks of preparation, the Browns defense should be able to slow down the Ravens scoring.
Something else to consider. The Browns looked terrible in their last game, getting blown out at Chicago. The public is expecting the Browns to look like they did in Chicago. What they’re not considering is that half the team had the flu in the week leading up to that game. They were also on the road. There were some negative factors in the Browns last game that are not present in this game. The Browns will look like a different team on Monday Night Football. Take the points.
