The off-season is a good time to look for value, so November through March is a good time to look for value in the baseball market. Always be looking ahead. Find several players that are undervalued and buy them throughout the winter when the price is right. As the demand for baseball drops, some eBay sellers will lower their buy it now and store prices. Also, fewer people are bidding in the baseball market, making it easier to win auctions. Keep in mind that just because a player is undervalued, does not mean that every card is a good value. Some sellers always ask for top dollar. Buying from sellers at top dollar isn’t the best way to make a profit, but if the player’s undervalued to begin with, even top dollar prices may not be what they should be. If the player’s undervalued, there’s probably a margin of safety already built into the price, but the less you pay the bigger that margin is. So look for the deals. If you shop and bid wisely, you can find some great bargains throughout the off-season.I assume you’ve heard of Justin Upton. I hope you’ve heard of Billy Butler. Which one would you rather have on your fantasy team? Which one is the better investment? There’s no denying Upton’s talent or power. He will be on ESPN highlights for the next decade, bashing homeruns. We all know this and it’s reflected in his price. Billy Butler will also be making highlights for the next decade. The market is unaware that he’s every bit as good as Upton. Possibly better. When the price is considered, Butler is the easy choice. We can thank the royals for keeping Butler’s price down. If he played for the Yankees we’d have never had a buying opportunity like this. The nice thing about investing in small market players is that they usually end up on the big market teams and their price goes up with the higher demand. There’s a very good chance Butler may leave the Royals at some point and his price will rise overnight.
Let’s compare the numbers for Butler and Upton for the 2009 season. Butler had 51 doubles, 21 homeruns, and 103 strikeouts in 608 at bats. Upton had 30 doubles, 26 homeruns, and 137 strikeouts in 526 at bats. The numbers clearly show that Upton has more power. He hit one homerun every 20 at bats while Butler hit one every 29 at bats. Both players can expect to do this well or better in their prime. Over their careers, Upton should have more home runs, but Butler will have the better average. Due to the high rate of strikeouts, Upton will be more likely to struggle with slumps. Butler’s low strikeout rate will make him a steady producer. Upton had 1 strikeout every 3.8 at bats this past season. Butler had 1 strikeout every 5.9 at bats. Their minor league track records suggest this trend will continue throughout their careers. Upton has the edge in power and Butler has the edge in contact. Upton also has a big advantage in the speed department, but speed is cheap. It’s cheap in fantasy and it’s usually cheap in the marketplace. Chicks dig the long ball! Homeruns are where the money’s at. Homeruns with consistency are the superstars. A homerun hitter that can average .300+ is what puts the elite above the rest. Guys like Pujols, Manny, Miguel Cabrera, and A-Rod. Butler is in that mold. At the rate he strikes out, Upton’s career average will not be close to .300. Upton is more like Adam Dunn than Albert Pujols. He’s still a great player, but he’s not the next Pujols.
The difference in the prices for these 2 players is mostly due to the hype. Nobody is talking about Billy Butler while Upton has been getting fantasy love for the past couple of seasons. In the 2010 season, Billy Butler will explode and create his own hype. He’s already busted out. After the 2009 all-star break he hit .326 with 13 homeruns in 258 at bats. It was not a fluke. He is absolutely for real and numbers like this will become the norm for him. He is the best investment I know of right now. He’s as safe a bet as there is and his price is lower than it should be. Butler’s second half did not go unnoticed by the market. He’s not as cheap as he was prior to the all-star break. There are fewer deals to be found but there are still good deals available and there should be a good amount of deals available throughout the off-season.
On October 19, 2009 this Justin Upton card sold on eBay for $69.99 plus $2.50 for s. & h. On October 31, 2009 this Billy Butler card was on eBay with a buy it now price of $49.95 plus $3.00 for s. & h. The Upton card had 9 bids. The Butler card is a better deal. Nobody is looking to buy Butler right now so the price is lower. By August of 2010, this card will be selling for double the price. The lack of demand for Butler will change in 2010 when his fully blossomed talent is on display. He’s entering his prime and the market will take notice within the next 12 months. I have more money invested in Butler than any other player. Butler has Cooperstown talent. Buy this winter because by next June, it will be too late.
