here’s a little trick for fantasy. defenses and kickers are a crap-shoot. most owners get one that’s “good” and then live with the ups and downs all season long. owners doing this are hurting themselves, there’s a better option. drafting a top ranked defense or kicker in a fantasy draft before the final 2 rounds, is essentially throwing away value. spending more than $1 on these positions in an auction draft is wasting valuable money that would be better spent elsewhere. for simplicity, we will discuss defenses, but this concept applies to both defense’s and kicker’s. between the two, defenses usually have the higher average, making them slightly more valuable. when another owner wastes their resources on these positions, it is good for you. let them have the patriots, steelers, and ravens.
in a typical 12 team league, even if all the teams have a backup there are still several defense’s on the waiver wire all season long. as the season goes on, they get picked over and the only ones left aren’t very good, or so it seems. that is the worst case scenario. in most leagues there will be about 15 defense’s on the waiver wire at all times, giving you a lot of choices. i have yet to be in a league that doesn’t have several options on the wire all season long, if i’m ever in a league like that, then maybe i’ll change strategies. but until then…
it’s all about the match-up. this is why even the best defense’s have bad weeks. a good defense that’s playing a high powered offense can have a bad game. a bad defense that’s playing a very bad offense can have a good game. the team a defense is playing will have an affect on how well they do. nothing makes a defense look good, better than a terrible offense. if a mediocre defense is at home and has a bad offense coming into town, the mediocre team can do very well in that game. they have important factors in their favor, they’re at home and they play a bad offense that’s on the road. watch out for teams that are on back to back road games. long road trips are hard on a team and their play will suffer. travel time and jet lag are something to watch out for also. pay attention to east coast teams going out west, they often struggle. teams that play on monday night have a short week to prepare and heal for the next game. teams that play on thursday have extra time to prepare and heal for the next game. teams on a bye have 2 weeks to prepare and get healthy, and it usually shows in their play. there are a lot of external factors that can help or hurt a team.
the wind is game changing. if it’s windy, the qb’s will struggle and the passing game will look awful. the 3rd down conversion rate will suffer. even the best qb’s (and k’s) are helpless against the wind. it never hurts to check the weather reports before you finalize your roster. rain and snow aren’t as big of factors as people think, but the wind can make the best offense in the league look bad. it is a defense’s friend and a qb’s (and k’s) enemy.
if you don’t have the time or motivation to check the weather and match-ups, don’t fret. if you want to know how a team is expected to perform, ask a professional. vegas. vegas is very good at predicting the winner and final score of a game. it’s called the point spread and the over/under. (the closing line is more accurate, that’s the one you want.) if the o/u is 48 in the game your defense is in, they’re probably a bad play. cut them and get a weaker defense that has an o/u several points lower. a really nice combination is a defense that’s favored with an o/u in the low 30’s. the team that wins, usually has the turnover edge in the game. if your defense is favored, they should get a turnover, which is a nice bonus. and of course, if you’re looking for a kicker, get one that has a high o/u and preferably is on a team that’s favored, in a dome or nice weather (mud is bad for k’s). here’s an example of how to break down a game, using vegas style lines…
raiders 46
browns -4
rams 32
49ers -4
the browns are favored by 4 points over the raiders and the o/u is 46. the rams are 4 point underdogs against the 49ers and the o/u is 32. the waiver wire pickups available in this scenario are the browns, raiders, and rams. the rams are the best defense of the 3 choices. take the 46 point o/u, subtract the 4 points the browns are favored by, divide by 2, and you are left with 21. take the 32 point o/u, subtract the 4 points the 49ers are favored by, divide by 2, and you are left with 14. the raiders team o/u is 21 and the browns team o/u is 25 (21 plus the 4 points they’re favored by). the 49ers team o/u is 18 and the rams o/u is 14. of the 3 choices available, the rams are expected to give up the least amount of points. once you understand this concept and apply it, you will steer clear of more bad games than your opponents. for the most part, turnovers come down to luck. get the defense that is expected to give up the fewest points and hope for the best. it’s good if they’re favored, but like in the above scenario, it’s not necessary if the margin is big.
here’s something for the post season if you’re one of the fortunate owners. look ahead at the match-ups and find out who the bad offenses are playing during the fantasy postseason. if a team has a nice match-up against a bad offense and the team’s available, plan ahead. if the playoffs are a few weeks out and you’ve already locked up a spot, winning more games may not matter, but being ready for the postseason will. if only 4 teams go to the playoffs, then a bye is probably not an option, so you’re at a point where wins are meaningless. plan ahead and get the best defenses available and avoid having a defense that has bad match-ups in your playoffs.
fantasy is the “gateway drug” to gambling. fantasy and sports gambling, are the same thing. fantasy is just betting on a player for a season instead of betting on a team for a single game. investing in sports cards or in stocks and bonds is also gambling. insurance is a gamble. every time you leave your house, you’re betting that you’ll come home again. if you thought you were going to die that day, you wouldn’t leave the house. life is a gamble. everything breaks down to odds and percentages. there are no guarantees, so always get the best odds you can. that’s the best you can do. bad luck is nothing more than the odds that are against you playing out. there’s nothing you can do about it. in sports, there’s always a certain percentage against you and there’s no avoiding it. good luck.
(this method can also be used to help decide who to start when you can’t decide between 2 players. start the player with the higher expected total. no matter what happens, you can blame vegas. sure beats a coin flip.)
