I’ve had some requests for gambling picks. I’ll be putting up picks from time to time. I am not responsible for your actions. By reading this blog, you acknowledge that you will not hold SouthSeaSports.com responsible for your actions. Ok, now that the legal stuff is out of the way, let’s look at Sunday’s bets…
There are certain factors that humans can not overcome. Even professional athletes, playing at the highest level of competition are still susceptible to exhaustion, lack of preparation, lack of focus, etc. Factors such as these are often overlooked by the betting public. The public rarely considers external factors that can play a big role in how a game is played. Vegas knows this and they adjust their lines accordingly. Vegas (and all major books) have two types of customers, winners and losers. The vast majority of gamblers are losers. The surest way to lose money at sports betting is to bet with the public, because they are the ones losing. When it comes to looking for value at the sports book, look at the teams that make you sick to your stomach to put money on. Teams that everyone you know won’t bet on. Teams that everyone you know is betting against. If the bet feels comfortable then everybody’s betting it and there is no value in the line. If you walk away from the bookie thinking the team you just bet on doesn’t stand a chance and you’re already sick over it, you probably have an extra point or two of value. That is all that matters.
The Redskins at the Falcons game jumped off the board at me this week. The Falcons just played on Monday night. They are on a short week of rest. The Redskins are coming off their bye, giving them two full weeks to prepare and rest up for this game. Despite their record and poor play, the Redskins are still a professional football team. Any football team that has the preparation advantage they have coming into this game should perform better than normal. The Redskins +10 is a solid bet. The line is already moving down, but some of us got the full 10 points earlier in the week. If you missed the 10 points, don’t panic. Local bookies often have different lines than Vegas. If a local bookie is getting a lot of action on the Falcons, he may be willing to give the full 10 points just to get some money on the other side. Smalltime bookies are quicker to react to the money and they don’t usually have sharp bettors taking advantage of it, so they can leave juicy lines hanging out and often do.
The Kansas City Chiefs are another bad team coming off their bye and getting no respect from the betting public. The Chiefs are getting 6-7 points at Jacksonville. If you can get this line at 7, it’s a bargain. Both defenses are ranked in the bottom third of the league, giving up about 375 yards a game. With two weeks to prepare for this game, the Chiefs defense should be the better unit on Sunday, which isn’t saying much. It’s unlikely that the Jags can blow out a Chiefs team that is well rested and well prepared. The Chiefs should find plenty of holes in the Jaguars defense and stay in this game. The spread should probably be closer to 3 points.
I love to bet bad teams coming off bye weeks. The betting public overlooks how valuable the extra week of rest and preparation are for professional athletes. Bettors assume the team will be as bad as it’s been all year, but usually the team performs a little bit better. That little extra edge is all it takes to cover the spread. The Redskins +10 and the Chiefs +7 are the bets you want. Like always, shop around and get the best possible line.
