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lottery tickets

buying stock in a player is a little bit like buying a lottery ticket, you hit some and you miss some.  the more you hit, the more you win.  the difference is, nobody is willing to buy the losing lottery tickets.  however, people are willing to buy autographed cards of players that are busts.  autographs give cards a solid value.  they are a piece of a player, that player took the time to sign the card, and it’s a moment of time in that player’s life when he held that card.  more importantly, autographs are limited.  there are only so many made and fans want them.  fans are willing to purchase an autograph or a piece of jersey of a player that means something to them.  consider david tyree and ickey woods.  tyree will never amount to anything more in the nfl than a backup, but we all know the name.  ickey woods had one good season and faded away after injury.  what do these 2 players represent? the superbowl.  to fans of their respective teams, these players represent a special season, a special moment when their team was great.  because of this, fans are willing to pay for a card with an autograph of these players.  i bought one such autograph, not as an investor, but as a fan.  i paid $15 for a rare (#/50) ickey woods autographed card.  that’s ridiculous!  as a fan, i think it was money well spent.  as an investor, i think my money would have made better toilet paper.  the point is, the autographed cards will always have a certain value to somebody for some reason.  when autographed cards get below $10 for talented players that are still in the early stages of their career, it’s time to buy some lottery tickets.  it’s hard to lose money on autographed cards when they’re that cheap.  look at it like this…

10 different players bought for $10 each
9 of the players do nothing and sell at a 50% loss for $45
1 player breaks out and sells for $150
$150 + $45 = $195 for a $95  profit

even if the players are a total bust, they still have a value to someone.  find the player’s college and hometown on craigslist and put the card up for sale, someone will want the autograph.  cards made in a limited supply, will always have a solid value dictated by demand, regardless of what the player does.  in other words, the price can only go so low before that player’s fan base will stop the price from falling further.  all players have fans.  maurice clarett was watched by hundreds of thousands of people every saturday for one magical season.  to some of those people he represents something great.  this card sold for $6.38 plus $3.50 s & h on ebay on october 19, 2009.  it had 4 bids!

still has value

2005 auto rc

right now, the washington redskins are terrible. there offensive line is a patchwork of second stringers. that will hurt any team and make any offensive player look bad. there’s no telling what their line will look like in a year. with some healthy players, a high draft pick, and a stud free agent, their line could be the best in football next season.  fantasy owners want nothing to do with redskins players right now and neither does the sports card market.  ignore the present.  here are a couple of nice lottery tickets.  both players were drafted in the second round, both are in their second season, both are only 22 years old, and both have a higher intrinsic value than their current price.  these players offer a very low risk investment compared to the potential payoff their talent may bring.

$5 plus $2.50 s & h

$5 plus $2.50 s & h

2008udmalcolmkellyautorc

$4 plus $2.50 s & h

both of these cards were listed as buy it now on ebay on october 24, 2009.  a $14 investment that can’t possibly go down much further in price, would get you both cards.  one of these cards may be worth 10 times that in a year or two.  simply buying cheap autographed cards like this is not enough to turn a profit.  the intrinsic value versus the price of the player has to justify the purchase of the card, but there is a lot of room for error with cards this cheap.  penny stocks like this make nice lottery tickets.  if you’re going to gamble, this is the way to do it.




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