Another interesting thing about tonight’s game is that the over/under is only 39. Vegas is telling us there shouldn’t be a lot of scoring in this game. The 11 points the Browns are getting is 28% of the total expected score! If the Browns get in the end zone one time, it may be enough to cover. Even 3 field goals could cover this spread. On the other hand, the Ravens will have to get into the end zone at least 3 or 4 times. With the 2 weeks of preparation, the Browns defense should be able to slow down the Ravens scoring.

Something else to consider. The Browns looked terrible in their last game, getting blown out at Chicago. The public is expecting the Browns to look like they did in Chicago. What they’re not considering is that half the team had the flu in the week leading up to that game. They were also on the road. There were some negative factors in the Browns last game that are not present in this game. The Browns will look like a different team on Monday Night Football. Take the points.

There are certain factors that humans can not overcome. Even professional athletes, playing at the highest level of competition are still susceptible to exhaustion, lack of preparation, lack of focus, etc. Factors such as these are often overlooked by the betting public. The public rarely considers external factors that can play a big role in how a game is played. Vegas knows this and they adjust their lines accordingly. Vegas (and all major books) have two types of customers, winners and losers. The vast majority of gamblers are losers. The surest way to lose money at sports betting is to bet with the public, because they are the ones losing. When it comes to looking for value at the sports book, look at the teams that make you sick to your stomach to put money on. Teams that everyone you know won’t bet on. Teams that everyone you know is betting against. If the bet feels comfortable then everybody’s betting it and there is no value in the line. If you walk away from the bookie thinking the team you just bet on doesn’t stand a chance and you’re already sick over it, you probably have an extra point or two of value. That is all that matters.

The Redskins at the Falcons game jumped off the board at me this week. The Falcons just played on Monday night. They are on a short week of rest. The Redskins are coming off their bye, giving them two full weeks to prepare and rest up for this game. Despite their record and poor play, the Redskins are still a professional football team. Any football team that has the preparation advantage they have coming into this game should perform better than normal. The Redskins +10 is a solid bet. The line is already moving down, but some of us got the full 10 points earlier in the week. If you missed the 10 points, don’t panic. Local bookies often have different lines than Vegas. If a local bookie is getting a lot of action on the Falcons, he may be willing to give the full 10 points just to get some money on the other side. Smalltime bookies are quicker to react to the money and they don’t usually have sharp bettors taking advantage of it, so they can leave juicy lines hanging out and often do.

The Kansas City Chiefs are another bad team coming off their bye and getting no respect from the betting public. The Chiefs are getting 6-7 points at Jacksonville. If you can get this line at 7, it’s a bargain. Both defenses are ranked in the bottom third of the league, giving up about 375 yards a game. With two weeks to prepare for this game, the Chiefs defense should be the better unit on Sunday, which isn’t saying much. It’s unlikely that the Jags can blow out a Chiefs team that is well rested and well prepared. The Chiefs should find plenty of holes in the Jaguars defense and stay in this game. The spread should probably be closer to 3 points.

I love to bet bad teams coming off bye weeks. The betting public overlooks how valuable the extra week of rest and preparation are for professional athletes. Bettors assume the team will be as bad as it’s been all year, but usually the team performs a little bit better. That little extra edge is all it takes to cover the spread. The Redskins +10 and the Chiefs +7 are the bets you want. Like always, shop around and get the best possible line.

The off-season is a good time to look for value, so November through March is a good time to look for value in the baseball market. Always be looking ahead. Find several players that are undervalued and buy them throughout the winter when the price is right. As the demand for baseball drops, some eBay sellers will lower their buy it now and store prices. Also, fewer people are bidding in the baseball market, making it easier to win auctions. Keep in mind that just because a player is undervalued, does not mean that every card is a good value. Some sellers always ask for top dollar. Buying from sellers at top dollar isn’t the best way to make a profit, but if the player’s undervalued to begin with, even top dollar prices may not be what they should be. If the player’s undervalued, there’s probably a margin of safety already built into the price, but the less you pay the bigger that margin is. So look for the deals. If you shop and bid wisely, you can find some great bargains throughout the off-season.

I assume you’ve heard of Justin Upton. I hope you’ve heard of Billy Butler. Which one would you rather have on your fantasy team? Which one is the better investment? There’s no denying Upton’s talent or power. He will be on ESPN highlights for the next decade, bashing homeruns. We all know this and it’s reflected in his price. Billy Butler will also be making highlights for the next decade. The market is unaware that he’s every bit as good as Upton. Possibly better. When the price is considered, Butler is the easy choice. We can thank the royals for keeping Butler’s price down. If he played for the Yankees we’d have never had a buying opportunity like this. The nice thing about investing in small market players is that they usually end up on the big market teams and their price goes up with the higher demand. There’s a very good chance Butler may leave the Royals at some point and his price will rise overnight.

Let’s compare the numbers for Butler and Upton for the 2009 season. Butler had 51 doubles, 21 homeruns, and 103 strikeouts in 608 at bats. Upton had 30 doubles, 26 homeruns, and 137 strikeouts in 526 at bats. The numbers clearly show that Upton has more power. He hit one homerun every 20 at bats while Butler hit one every 29 at bats. Both players can expect to do this well or better in their prime. Over their careers, Upton should have more home runs, but Butler will have the better average. Due to the high rate of strikeouts, Upton will be more likely to struggle with slumps. Butler’s low strikeout rate will make him a steady producer. Upton had 1 strikeout every 3.8 at bats this past season. Butler had 1 strikeout every 5.9 at bats. Their minor league track records suggest this trend will continue throughout their careers. Upton has the edge in power and Butler has the edge in contact. Upton also has a big advantage in the speed department, but speed is cheap. It’s cheap in fantasy and it’s usually cheap in the marketplace. Chicks dig the long ball! Homeruns are where the money’s at. Homeruns with consistency are the superstars. A homerun hitter that can average .300+ is what puts the elite above the rest. Guys like Pujols, Manny, Miguel Cabrera, and A-Rod. Butler is in that mold. At the rate he strikes out, Upton’s career average will not be close to .300. Upton is more like Adam Dunn than Albert Pujols. He’s still a great player, but he’s not the next Pujols.

The difference in the prices for these 2 players is mostly due to the hype. Nobody is talking about Billy Butler while Upton has been getting fantasy love for the past couple of seasons. In the 2010 season, Billy Butler will explode and create his own hype. He’s already busted out. After the 2009 all-star break he hit .326 with 13 homeruns in 258 at bats. It was not a fluke. He is absolutely for real and numbers like this will become the norm for him. He is the best investment I know of right now. He’s as safe a bet as there is and his price is lower than it should be. Butler’s second half did not go unnoticed by the market. He’s not as cheap as he was prior to the all-star break. There are fewer deals to be found but there are still good deals available and there should be a good amount of deals available throughout the off-season.

On October 19, 2009 this Justin Upton card sold on eBay for $69.99 plus $2.50 for s. & h. On October 31, 2009 this Billy Butler card was on eBay with a buy it now price of $49.95 plus $3.00 for s. & h. The Upton card had 9 bids. The Butler card is a better deal. Nobody is looking to buy Butler right now so the price is lower. By August of 2010, this card will be selling for double the price. The lack of demand for Butler will change in 2010 when his fully blossomed talent is on display. He’s entering his prime and the market will take notice within the next 12 months. I have more money invested in Butler than any other player. Butler has Cooperstown talent. Buy this winter because by next June, it will be too late.

With an athlete the intrinsic value comes down to one important factor. There is only factor that will remain a constant throughout a player’s entire career. Talent. It is the one factor that will not and can not change. If LeBron James never played the game of basketball or never even saw a basketball, his intrinsic value wouldn’t change. If LeBron had spent the first 20 years of his life living on the moon and then one day came down to earth and picked up a basketball, he’d still be awesome. LeBron is not alone. Antonio Gates became a superstar in the NFL without ever having played a football game in college. Josh Hamilton spent a couple of years away from baseball pumping his body full of drugs. Then he sobered up, picked up a bat and made the all-star game. Both Gates and Hamilton missed out on valuable development time. Their talent levels are so high that they could succeed even with external factors that would’ve doomed the average athlete. Thousands and thousands of players have busted their butts, going to practice, lifting weights, eating right, doing everything the coaches tell them to do. In the end, they don‘t achieve their goal of success. The reason is because they didn’t have the talent to begin with and all the hard work can’t change that. There are athletes that can succeed through hard work, but if all things are equal they can’t succeed nearly to the level of the athletes that possess the superior talent. There are also players with elite potential that never make it on the field; Kurt Warner almost didn’t make it. Hamilton was running out of time. Another year of drugs and we wouldn’t know his name. There are surely a lot of stories of “never has beens” that did have the talent. It’s unavoidable and it’s a shame, but of no real consequence to us. We only care about elite talent that has made it onto the field.

Cedric Benson was the 4^th overall pick in the 2005 draft by the Chicago Bears. We have no way of knowing everything that occurred with Benson in Chicago. All we can say for sure is that they failed to capitalize on his talent. Because of external factors in Chicago, Benson was on his way to being a bust. He had the talent, he always had the talent. He was always a good investment based on that talent. When the external factors that were holding down his market price changed, he shot up in value. The price was below his intrinsic value and the market has corrected. It’s quite possible that Benson could’ve remained on the bears and become a complete bust. That is not something we can control and it happens. Investing in Benson’s talent is the only thing we can control. Had anyone suggested 6 months ago that it was a good idea to buy Cedric Benson’s rookie cards, people would have laughed. Now the person that invested in Benson’s intrinsic value is laughing all the way to the bank.

Vernon Davis is off the charts when it comes to talent. There was never a question about his talent. His problem was mental. People can change their attitudes and they can change their work habits, but they can’t change their talent. Davis was on his way to being a bust when an external factor changed, the coach. The attitude soon followed. Now Davis is making good on his elite talent and his price has risen. His intrinsic value is sky high; he’s one of the most athletic players in the NFL. When his price was down, he was a good investment based on his elite talent. A player with this much talent can make it to the professional level with very little effort. It didn’t matter what kind of attitude Davis had because he was always better than the next guy. When everything clicks, players like this end up in Canton. It’s a shame Singletary didn’t get to Davis sooner.

So a player’s intrinsic value comes down to talent. Talent is all that matters. Everything else can change. Putting an exact number on a player’s value is difficult. The best way to do it is to compare the player to other “equal” players. Look at the talent of 2 players and compare the price. In fantasy, the price is easy. Auction values and rankings tell us how the market views a player. Looking back on where Benson and Davis were ranked in fantasy drafts this season, it’s easy to see they were undervalued. At the prices they had in the market, they were both good buys coming into this season. They were both top 10 picks in the NFL draft. That is usually a good indicator that a player might have a lot of talent. Talent leads to profits.

stewart is only 22 years old, 4 years younger than williams.  at some point he will get his shot at being the lead back.  when he does, his price will rise.  there’s no way of knowing when this will happen.  if williams gets hurt, it will happen sooner than later.  if williams stays healthy, it could be a couple of years before stewart becomes the starter.  williams is due to become a free agent in 2011, while stewart is signed through 2013.  it’s possible williams may be on another team in a couple years, at which point stewart’s price would rise.  it’s also possible that williams could re-sign with the panthers and continue to block stewart’s path to stardom.  nobody knows what will happen.  it might sound foolish to invest in a player that may not get the chance to start for several years.  there is a chance that our money could be tied up in stewart for 3-5 years.  it’s not fun having money invested in a player and watching that player waste away on the bench.  it happens.  when we invest in a player, this is always a possibility.  but here’s the good news…

a $15 investment today, that takes 4 years before selling at $30, would result in a %100 profit over 4 years.  that is outstanding!  it’s also the worst foreseeable scenario.  (a career ending injury is actually the worst scenario, but it’s a risk inherent in all athletes and something that we can not account for.)  a $15 purchase of stewart today will have many chances over the next few seasons to increase in price.  stewart’s intrinsic value is higher than this price.  it’s quite possible that his price could fall further in the market, if it does, buy more.  all we care about is that the intrinsic value is higher than the price.

in 2008, stewart was drafted in the first round, 13th overall, by the carolina panthers.  stewart flew under the national radar while playing for the ducks, but with his rare size and speed, nfl scouts didn’t overlook him.  his time in the 40 at the combine was 4.48, which is scary for a guy that’s 5′10″ and 235 pounds.  he can out run and run over would be tacklers.  best of all, with stewart, we already have a nice nfl sample size to look at.  since becoming a professional, he’s averaged over 4.5 yards per carry.  he’s a first round talent and he’s produced at that level in the nfl.  this makes him a relatively low risk investment.  opportunity and health are the biggest concerns, two things we can’t control.

2008 upper deck auto rc

on october 26, 2009 this card was  listed as a buy it now on ebay with a price of $14.99 plus free shipping.  this is a good buy low opportunity.  stewart’s intrinsic value is higher than this.  currently, there are several factors keeping his price down in the market.  he came out of oregon, he’s a backup, and he’s had some injuries.  these factors have nothing to do with his true value, but these are factors the market cares about.  at some point, the market price will rise to meet his intrinsic value.  until then, he’s a good buy low.

in a typical 12 team league, even if all the teams have a backup there are still several defense’s on the waiver wire all season long.  as the season goes on, they get picked over and the only ones left aren’t very good, or so it seems.  that is the worst case scenario.  in most leagues there will be about 15 defense’s on the waiver wire at all times, giving you a lot of choices.  i have yet to be in a league that doesn’t have several options on the wire all season long, if i’m ever in a league like that, then maybe i’ll change strategies.  but until then…

it’s all about the match-up. this is why even the best defense’s have bad weeks. a good defense that’s playing a high powered offense can have a bad game.  a bad defense that’s playing a very bad offense can have a good game.  the team a defense is playing will have an affect on how well they do.  nothing makes a defense look good, better than a terrible offense.  if a mediocre defense is at home and has a bad offense coming into town, the mediocre team can do very well in that game.  they have important factors in their favor, they’re at home and they play a bad offense that’s on the road.  watch out for teams that are on back to back road games.  long road trips are hard on a team and their play will suffer.  travel time and jet lag are something to watch out for also.  pay attention to east coast teams going out west, they often struggle.  teams that play on monday night have a short week to prepare and heal for the next game.  teams that play on thursday have extra time to prepare and heal for the next game.  teams on a bye have 2 weeks to prepare and get healthy, and it usually shows in their play.  there are a lot of external factors that can help or hurt a team. 

the wind is game changing.  if it’s windy, the qb’s will struggle and the passing game will look awful.  the 3rd down conversion rate will suffer.  even the best qb’s (and k’s) are helpless against the wind.  it never hurts to check the weather reports before you finalize your roster.  rain and snow aren’t as big of factors as people think, but the wind can make the best offense in the league look bad.  it is a defense’s friend and a qb’s (and k’s) enemy.

if you don’t have the time or motivation to check the weather and match-ups, don’t fret.  if you want to know how a team is expected to perform, ask a professional.  vegas.  vegas is very good at predicting the winner and final score of a game.  it’s called the point spread and the over/under.  (the closing line is more accurate, that’s the one you want.)  if the o/u is 48 in the game your defense is in, they’re probably a bad play.  cut them and get a weaker defense that has an o/u several points lower.  a really nice combination is a defense that’s favored with an o/u in the low 30’s. the team that wins, usually has the turnover edge in the game.  if your defense is favored, they should get a turnover, which is a nice bonus.  and of course, if you’re looking for a kicker, get one that has a high o/u and preferably is on a team that’s favored, in a dome or nice weather (mud is bad for k’s).  here’s an example of how to break down a game, using vegas style lines…

raiders 46
browns -4

rams 32
49ers -4

the browns are favored by 4 points over the raiders and the o/u is 46.  the rams are 4 point underdogs against the 49ers and the o/u is 32.  the waiver wire pickups available in this scenario are the browns, raiders, and rams.  the rams are the best defense of the 3 choices.  take the 46 point o/u, subtract the 4 points the browns are favored by, divide by 2, and you are left with 21.  take the 32 point o/u, subtract the 4 points the 49ers are favored by, divide by 2, and you are left with 14.  the raiders team o/u is 21 and the browns team o/u is 25 (21 plus the 4 points they’re favored by).  the 49ers team o/u is 18 and the rams o/u is 14. of the 3 choices available, the rams are expected to give up the least amount of points.  once you understand this concept and apply it, you will steer clear of more bad games than your opponents.  for the most part, turnovers come down to luck.  get the defense that is expected to give up the fewest points and hope for the best.  it’s good if they’re favored, but like in the above scenario, it’s not necessary if the margin is big.

here’s something for the post season if you’re one of the fortunate owners.  look ahead at the match-ups and find out who the bad offenses are playing during the fantasy postseason.  if a team has a nice match-up against a bad offense and the team’s available, plan ahead.  if the playoffs are a few weeks out and you’ve already locked up a spot, winning more games may not matter, but being ready for the postseason will.  if only 4 teams go to the playoffs, then a bye is probably not an option, so you’re at a point where wins are meaningless.  plan ahead and get the best defenses available and avoid having a defense that has bad match-ups in your playoffs.

fantasy is the “gateway drug” to gambling.  fantasy and sports gambling, are the same thing.  fantasy is just betting on a player for a season instead of betting on a team for a single game.  investing in sports cards or in stocks and bonds is also gambling.  insurance is a gamble.  every time you leave your house, you’re betting that you’ll come home again.  if you thought you were going to die that day, you wouldn’t leave the house.  life is a gamble.  everything breaks down to odds and percentages.  there are no guarantees, so always get the best odds you can.  that’s the best you can do.  bad luck is nothing more than the odds that are against you playing out.  there’s nothing you can do about it.  in sports, there’s always a certain percentage against you and there’s no avoiding it.  good luck.

(this method can also be used to help decide who to start when you can’t decide between 2 players.  start the player with the higher expected total.  no matter what happens, you can blame vegas.  sure beats a coin flip.)