in the world of stocks, a penny stock is virtually worthless, hence the name. buying a penny stock is speculation with long odds. investors that gamble on penny stocks often lose, but every so often they come across the next apple or microsoft. then they celebrate. in the fantasy and card markets a penny stock is also worth the minimal investment. josh hamilton and kurt warner were once penny stocks, if you bought them, you celebrated. the main thing that makes a penny stock so appealing is price, they’re very cheap. anytime you can find a player with a price that is below his intrinsic value, he’s worth investigating, regardless of the general consensus. there is always considerable risk with a penny stock. the same can be said of an athlete that has yet to reach his potential, an athlete that seems to fail with every chance, and an athlete that’s had multiple injuries. but if you want to find value, the best place to look is where nobody else is looking. trust me, nobody is looking at him…
injured again.
am i suggesting that has value? absolutely. he also has risk. as in investor, i only care about one thing, the “margin of safety”. the fact is, smith’s true value is higher than his current price. that is all i care about. i’m not a scout or an nfl insider and i only have limited access to game film (youtube). but, in my opinion, smith has the tools needed to succeed as an nfl quarterback, especially if he can fall into the right situation. the possible lack of confidence and the injuries he has racked up are my major concerns, but let’s look at some positives. he was the number one overall pick in the 2005 draft and signed a $49.5 million contract. nfl scouts considered him a first round talent, this is important, because professional scouts are right more than they’re wrong. he was fourth in the heisman voting, so it’s not just scouts that liked him coming out of college. he scored a 40 out of 50 on the wonderlic test and graduated in two years with a 3.71 gpa and an economics degree, so he’s no dummy. following an ugly rookie season that included an injury, smith began to show improvement in 2006. he played all 16 games and threw 16 td’s and 16 int’s. not bad for a second year starter that was, by some accounts, not yet ready for the nfl coming out of college. in 2007, with his third offensive coordinator since being drafted, smith injured his shoulder in a game against the seahawks in late september. initially, surgery was recommended to repair his separated shoulder, the team disagreed. despite smith’s insistence that the injury hurt his throwing ability, 3 weeks later he was on the field again. he was right, it hurt his accuracy. 48.7% completions for the season. finally in december, the niners put him on the injured reserve. dr. james andrews was called in. (if you don’t know who dr. andrews is, you should. google him.) in 2008, he was matched up with his fourth offensive coordinator, mike martz. with martz’s complex system and martz’s own guy, j.t. o’sullivan, smith didn’t stand a chance. losing out on the starting job was probably a good thing, because in september he went back on the ir and his season was finished. the problem this time? a wire from his surgery that was left in his shoulder had cut into a bone, breaking it. changing coordinators every year would’ve been rough on any qb, the injuries only made his job that much tougher.
entering 2009, when it looked like smith would be the starter, he sprained his thumb towards the end of preseason and lost the job as a result. it’s worth noting that the front office was pulling for smith to be the starter before the injury, they still expect to get a return on their investment. smith is currently backing up shaun hill. hill was considered not draftable coming out of college. the complete opposite of the way smith was viewed. to this point in their careers, hill has had much better luck, last season he played some weak defenses and looked good doing it, but he is nothing more than a backup and it’s starting to show. at some point smith’s luck may change. smith has had only one healthy season since being drafted and in that season he showed promise. smith is only 25. although it seems like he’s been around forever, he’s still young enough to turn it around and he’s got the skills to make it happen. will he finally have some good luck? things can’t get much worse for a number one overall pick, so one would think so.
unwanted.
these 2 autographed rookie cards went unsold on ebay on october 14, 2009. $15.99 + $3.99 s & h was the price for both. whatever the future holds for is anybody’s guess, but his intrinsic value is certainly higher than the current price. following michael crabtree’s signing, he’s practiced exclusively with . also, smith is practicing with the first string this week as hill nurses an injury, following another ugly performance. who knows, maybe smith will get another shot this year, maybe he’ll even become a super bowl mvp at some point in the next few years. stranger things have happened.
