very good players can have very bad seasons in the nfl (and any sport). it’s the nature of the beast in a game that involves many parts that must come together as a whole in order to succeed. this makes nfl players very vulnerable to external and uncontrollable circumstances. one broken link in the chain and it can have a snowballing effect on a player’s season. when looking at the future, ignore the present. the nfl is the league of parity. every season players and teams surprise and surpass their expectations. those expectations are oftentimes based on the previous season and have nothing to do with the reality of the current season. here are a few examples of players that broke out after they seemed to fail…
rashard mendenhall, drafted round 1, 23rd overall, 2nd season breakout
deangelo williams, drafted round 1, 27th overall, 3rd season breakout
vernon davis, drafted round 1, 6th overall, 4th season breakout
all 3 of these players at one point were fantasy castoffs, going undrafted in seasonal leagues. do you see what they have in common? professional scouts considered them first round talents. all 3 of theses players had their price decline for at least one full year before reaching their potential. the longer the decline, the more appealing the price. keep an eye on players that teams draft in the first couple of rounds, they have a better chance of succeeding than players drafted in later rounds. granted, there are plenty of first round busts, but there are less first round busts than fourth round busts. use a player’s draft position as a guide to help uncover his intrinsic value. it’s not set in stone, it’s just another tool to use in player evaluation. mendenhall had an injury, williams was in a committee (rbbc), and davis needed a bad ass coach to help him reach his potential. in hindsight it’s easy to see that these players had a high intrinsic value. once they overcame the obstacles in their way, we can see that ”they are who we thought they were”. first rounders.
even first round talents don’t always succeed right away in the nfl. accept this fact and use it to your advantage. currently, there are several players with first round talent and price’s that are in free fall. if you’re not aware of jason campbell, then you should read this http://southseasports.com/2009/10/thank-you-coach-zorn/ campbell is not alone in his misery, there are plenty more. unlike campbell, these players haven’t hit the rock bottom price yet, but they’re headed in that direction.
darren mcfadden is getting dropped by fantasy owners everywhere. as an investor, i hope he continues his plummet into the black hole for the rest of the season. if he does, he may be a good buy at some point next summer. he’s only 22 years old, so he will have plenty of opportunities in the future to produce like a first rounder. it’s quite possible that in 2 or 3 years he will lead the raiders to the superbowl. this is the nfl, the future is always a surprise. ignore the present! separate mcfadden from his current circumstances and evaluate him. what is his intrinsic value versus price?
felix jones is another player that’s currently in free fall. separate his current situation from his talent level to evaluate him. he’s already had some great games and shown the nfl world his first round skills. he is also only 22 years old and loaded with talent. his current situation, like mcfadden’s, is partially the result of an injury. also like mcfadden, it’s a result of other talent on the team at the same position. barber and choice have nothing to do with the intrinsic value of felix, ignore them. if a player’s injured, investigate the injury, if it’s something players regularly come back from, ignore it, it has nothing to do with intrinsic value. players get injured all the time and can come back even stronger the next season. more often than not, injuries are nothing more than temporary road blocks. like mcfadden, there’s a chance jones will bounce back this season, but there’s also a chance he won’t. i’ve never heard of the “arkansas curse”, so both of these players will likely bounce back in value. the only question is how far down the price goes before they bounce back.
stafford and sanchez are both first rounders and both are going down in value. awesome! both players have already made some nice highlights and both have justified their early selections. they’re qb’s. they will struggle. that’s normal. as investors, we can only hope sanchez continues to throw picks and the lions bring stafford back very slowly, keeping him out of the spotlight. if either one of theses players ends the season injured or on the bench, they may make a nice buy low this summer. always watch qb’s that were selected early, decide on their intrinsic value, and buy if given the opportunity.
why do i suggest buying football players in the summer? their values are seasonal. cyclical. in general, the best time to buy into a player is in the offseason, when the marketplace is caught up in another sport. it’s like stock in an energy company that supplies gas to people’s homes. in the winter the stock always gets a little boost because that’s when people are buying the most gas. when people are watching the all-star game in july, they’re not thinking about football. the offseason is a great time to look for value.
always be on the lookout for players with a high ceiling that are on the decline in the marketplace. the players i’ve suggested may all rebound this year and they may never become good buy lows. odds are that at least one of these players will continue to struggle this season, leading to a possible buying opportunity in the future. ignore the present conditions, separate the player and evaluate him on his own merit. many players rebound and become exactly “who we thought they were.”
