is matt leinart a buy low or a bust? what has the market set his value at compared to his intrinsic value? matt leinart is the kind of buy low candidate i live for! his intrinsic value is awesome, yet he’s been all but forgotten by the market. there’s a very good chance he’s on the waiver wire in your fantasy league. currently, he’s owned in 12% of cbs leagues and 0.7% of espn leagues. why all the love in cbs leagues? my guess is that cbs may have mentioned leinart in one of their fantasy articles, bringing attention to him. one thing is obvious from cbs and espn, owners don’t value leinart. but i do.
leinart was drafted in 2006, 10th overall as the future of arizona. right now the team has to be regretting the $23 million contract they gave warner back in march, following their super bowl season. also at the time, arizona did not know if leinart was ready, but they do now. warner took them to the super bowl and he’s earned the respect that makes it difficult to bench him. so for now, the cardinals will have to keep starting warner but time is not on his side. warner is 38, leinart is 26. football is a young man’s game, age is always an important factor in sports. never overlook age! father time is kicking warner’s ass and his offensive line isn’t doing anything to slow down that ass whopping. also, warner had hip surgery in march, a surgery that usually requires a year to heal, so he went into this season already hurting. another possibility, besides injury, is that the cardinals will fall out of contention. at that point, they could go in the direction of youth without totally slapping warner in the face. there’s a very good chance that an injury or youth movement will crack the door open for leinart.
how could leinart say no to this? i can't blame him.
what will happen when leinart walks through that open door? he will do what heisman winners are expected to do. he reminds me of carson palmer (leinart was his backup) and aaron rodgers, both sat on the bench waiting for their opportunity. when they became starters they were already veterans, they had all of the mental aspects of the game figured out, they had the physical tools, and they exploded. leinart has matured, according to the arizona coaching staff. coming out of college, paris hilton and partying got in the way of football, but no longer, he’s ready to be a leader and he showed what he can do in the preaseason.
what is leinart’s intrinsic value compared to his price? he has all-pro ability. he has awesome weapons. he has first round talent. he’s on the verge of getting the opportunity. and his price is low. this is a beautiful combination for a solid return on investment. as i already implied, i believe he has the same value as palmer and rodgers, elite quarterback talent. whatever his true value is, it has to be higher than his current value. i found this card on ebay…
$55.99 on october 13, 2009
the starting bid was $50, the buy it now was $80, shipping was $5.99 and the auction ended with no bids. i can’t say for certain when leinart will go up in value, but i can say for certain that he’s a great buy low. the cardinals paid him $50 million, they will give him his shot, he is their future. is it possible that warner survives the season, keeping leinart on the bench? certainly, anything’s possible. is it likely? no. either way, leinart will become the starter within the next 18 months. when he gets the opportunity, his value will skyrocket.
