With an athlete the intrinsic value comes down to one important factor. There is only factor that will remain a constant throughout a player’s entire career. Talent. It is the one factor that will not and can not change. If LeBron James never played the game of basketball or never even saw a basketball, his intrinsic value wouldn’t change. If LeBron had spent the first 20 years of his life living on the moon and then one day came down to earth and picked up a basketball, he’d still be awesome. LeBron is not alone. Antonio Gates became a superstar in the NFL without ever having played a football game in college. Josh Hamilton spent a couple of years away from baseball pumping his body full of drugs. Then he sobered up, picked up a bat and made the all-star game. Both Gates and Hamilton missed out on valuable development time. Their talent levels are so high that they could succeed even with external factors that would’ve doomed the average athlete. Thousands and thousands of players have busted their butts, going to practice, lifting weights, eating right, doing everything the coaches tell them to do. In the end, they don‘t achieve their goal of success. The reason is because they didn’t have the talent to begin with and all the hard work can’t change that. There are athletes that can succeed through hard work, but if all things are equal they can’t succeed nearly to the level of the athletes that possess the superior talent. There are also players with elite potential that never make it on the field; Kurt Warner almost didn’t make it. Hamilton was running out of time. Another year of drugs and we wouldn’t know his name. There are surely a lot of stories of “never has beens” that did have the talent. It’s unavoidable and it’s a shame, but of no real consequence to us. We only care about elite talent that has made it onto the field.
Cedric Benson was the 4th overall pick in the 2005 draft by the Chicago Bears. We have no way of knowing everything that occurred with Benson in Chicago. All we can say for sure is that they failed to capitalize on his talent. Because of external factors in Chicago, Benson was on his way to being a bust. He had the talent, he always had the talent. He was always a good investment based on that talent. When the external factors that were holding down his market price changed, he shot up in value. The price was below his intrinsic value and the market has corrected. It’s quite possible that Benson could’ve remained on the bears and become a complete bust. That is not something we can control and it happens. Investing in Benson’s talent is the only thing we can control. Had anyone suggested 6 months ago that it was a good idea to buy Cedric Benson’s rookie cards, people would have laughed. Now the person that invested in Benson’s intrinsic value is laughing all the way to the bank.
Vernon Davis is off the charts when it comes to talent. There was never a question about his talent. His problem was mental. People can change their attitudes and they can change their work habits, but they can’t change their talent. Davis was on his way to being a bust when an external factor changed, the coach. The attitude soon followed. Now Davis is making good on his elite talent and his price has risen. His intrinsic value is sky high; he’s one of the most athletic players in the NFL. When his price was down, he was a good investment based on his elite talent. A player with this much talent can make it to the professional level with very little effort. It didn’t matter what kind of attitude Davis had because he was always better than the next guy. When everything clicks, players like this end up in Canton. It’s a shame Singletary didn’t get to Davis sooner.
So a player’s intrinsic value comes down to talent. Talent is all that matters. Everything else can change. Putting an exact number on a player’s value is difficult. The best way to do it is to compare the player to other “equal” players. Look at the talent of 2 players and compare the price. In fantasy, the price is easy. Auction values and rankings tell us how the market views a player. Looking back on where Benson and Davis were ranked in fantasy drafts this season, it’s easy to see they were undervalued. At the prices they had in the market, they were both good buys coming into this season. They were both top 10 picks in the NFL draft. That is usually a good indicator that a player might have a lot of talent. Talent leads to profits.
