finding value is easy if you look at players nobody wants. the waiver wire is a good place to start. often, the best value is found in players that appear to be poor investments. that’s why they’re on the waiver wire. plenty of times an investment seems insane, and that’s a good thing, it causes the market to overlook value. if it appeared to be a good investment everyone would be buying in and the value would be gone. value is all that matters! if the intrinsic value of the player is below the price, invest, no matter how insane it may seem. value is hidden in players the market doesn’t want. as an investor, your job is to examine the reasons the market doesn’t want a player. many times you will find that the market has given up on a player too soon. when you find a player like this, you buy. you buy when it’s the crazy thing to do. because, once people are looking at a player, the value begins to disappear. the early bird gets the worm and the early investor gets the biggest profit. so call me crazy, but i’m buying…
…he’s been on the cover of sports illustrated 6 times. ronnie lott called him, “the greatest quarterback to ever play college football.” when he was in high school, the sporting news had him ranked as the top high school prospect of 2002. he scored the same as dan marino on the wonderlic. as a junior in college, he had a qb rating of 163.9 and he finished his college career with 60.8% completions, even though passing was not considered his strength. in 2007, espn ranked him as the tenth best college football player ever. nobody questions his athleticism or game breaking abilities. yet, there he sits in the marketplace, undervalued. he’s about to get an opportunity to start and once he does, his price will rise.
a few years ago, vince young was destined for the hall of fame and his price was sky high. now, after gaining nfl knowledge and experience, two things that raise his intrinsic value, his price has plummeted. when the titans are out of contention, they have to give vince young a shot. yes, they have to, whether fisher likes it or not. they have too much money invested in him, that money (and the front office) will force fisher to start him. a coaching change would probably be good for young. fisher is too conservative, he wants trent dilfer under center not michael vick. he wants a game manager not a game breaker. young is stuck with fisher for now and as investors, so are we. if young had a different coach and a different system, his current price might be much higher. never underestimate the extent to which nfl players are at the mercy of their coaches and systems.
in young’s rookie season he completed 51.7% of his passes. not too surprising for a rookie qb. here’s the silver lining, in his second season he completed 62.3% of his passes. he improved! the game slowed down for him and it showed in his numbers. the 17 int’s showed that he still had more to learn, but the improvement shouldn’t be ignored. in 2008, following an injury, young lost the job to kerry collins and young has yet to regain the starting role. this is surprising, because the int’s aside, young is the better qb. or at least, the better qb right now, and the “now” is all that matters in the nfl. it’s not unusual for qb’s to struggle with int’s their first couple of seasons. after riding the bench last season, and now a good part of this season, young should be ready to start and the number of int’s should drop. vince young has had the time to learn, he has the skills, and he’s about to have the job. with nothing to lose, maybe fisher will cut vy loose in the second half of the season. as an investor, i hope so.
collins will be 37 in december. young is 26 and was drafted and paid to be the future and face of the franchise. clearly something is amiss in tennessee this year and with young in general. collins has thrown 7 int’s through the first 5 games this season. oddly, fisher continues to back up his qb and claims that collins is not the reason the titans are losing, and that may be true. but, the reason is irrelevant. at the very least, it’s vy time, once they’re out of contention. they’re 0-5! fisher is sticking with collins even though after 30% of the season, they haven’t won a game. with the experience collins has, he shouldn’t turn the ball over as much as he has. he’s supposed to be a game manager, control the clock and win, not turn the ball over and lose. the biggest question concerning the qb position in tennessee is, why didn’t fisher stand behind vy this way when he was throwing picks? vy was an inexperienced qb, learning in the heat of battle, turning the ball over was to be expected. if either qb can be excused for their int’s, it’s vy and not collins. this leads me to believe that there’s a “schism” between fisher and young, maybe it’s a result of “the disappearance” incident. it’s hard to say why, but fisher seems to be holding young back. at this point it seems fisher doesn’t want young to succeed. i’m betting vy will succeed.
young and talented
this vince young 2006 autographed rc with a buy it now price of $39.99 + $2.75 s & h is for sale on ebay on october 17, 2009. that is a bargain. vince young’s intrinsic value is much higher than this price. he will get the opportunity to start soon and value will rapidly disappear. to get bargains like this, you have to buy when nobody else is. i’m buying vy. am i crazy?
